A scenario played out in many homes has a child reaching past a glass of milk for a cookie, only to knock over the glass in the haste to get the cookie. We usually say “He (or she) didn’t mean to spill it”. There is wisdom in recognizing a concept called UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES. It is so consistent that sociologist Robert Merton refers to it as the LAW of unintended consequences. Unlike the cookie example where children learn to be more careful, or place the glass elsewhere, as they grow up in many societal situations the law continues to haunt us all. When laws or policies are used by those in authority for seemingly positive reasons, beware of this law with ramifications.
Unintended consequences are outcomes that are not the results originally intended by a particular action. While they can be positive or negative, the intervention in a complex system always creates unanticipated and undesirable results. If the result is positive the benefit is termed a windfall. Many times the action does accomplish the original intent, but also results in negatives. In the assignment of prescription drugs the negatives are termed “side effects”. While there are instances where the original intent is not met, this blog focuses on the situations in life that result in additional consequences, often having a larger negative effect that the intended positive one.
In his 1936 publication Robert Merton listed five causes of the unanticipated results. 1) Ignorance 2) Error 3) Immediate interest 4) Basic values 5) Self-defeating prophecy. The more complex the system is, the higher the probability that failure to account for human nature or other cognitive biases will take place. Prohibition in the 1920’s was enacted to suppress the alcohol trade, but resulted in consolidating the hold of organized crime over the illegal alcohol industry. Many people believe the same thing about the current War on Drugs. Both are examples of failure to account for human nature so that the unintended consequences are larger than the intended results.
In the southeastern United States the introduction of the plant, Kadzu, to prevent erosion in earthwork has become a major problem, displacing native plants and taking over large amount of land. Killer bees came from a scientific experiment that went bad. The CIA funding of the Afghan Mujahideen probably contributed to the rise of Al-Qaeda. Rent control in many major cities created housing shortages or government built slums. With the rise of the internet, attempts to censor or remove a picture or document causes it to become widely known and distributed. Campaign finance reform resulted in far more money being spent on political campaigns.
Unlike the spilled milk example where everyone agreed he (or she) did not mean it, as adults we must have enough wisdom to hold people responsible for results, not intent. While the concept of unintended consequences has been around for centuries if not longer, the idea that only the intentions should be measured has not. It is a dangerous idea that when applied to public policy is a disaster. The growth of government can be tracked to dealing with the unintended consequences from programs like “The New Deal”, “The War on Poverty”, or Fair Housing Initiative”. Each response then has its own unintended consequences to deal with. The added regulations attack our freedoms and result in the debt chart shown.
A new threat has emerged from the regulatory and technological advancements. Researchers from the University of Michigan found that when misinformed people are exposed to correct facts, they rarely change their minds. They often become even stronger believers in what was previously lodged in their minds. Brendan Nyhan, the lead researcher, says “the phenomenon – known as backfire- is a natural defense mechanism to avoid cognitive dissonance”. If facts can’t be used to correct misperceptions of reality, the information glut is of no help to illuminate the threats that come with well-intentioned plans. In this election season, that is scary.
My political belief of limited government comes from understanding the law of unintended consequences and the political realities of a continual government intention to offset the effect of the past program for intended progress. My Faith in God helps me live the advise in Philippians 4:8 while staying informed from multiple versions about a situation. My formal education and business experience allow me to be aware that pitfalls exist in all well-intended campaigns in all aspects of life. I know that James 3:17 explains it best “but the wisdom from ABOVE is first pure, then peace-loving, gentle, compliant, full of mercy and good-fruits, without favoritism and hypocrisy”.
